Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Indianapolis Colts visit the Washington Commanders in the NFL on Sunday, October 4, with kickoff at 9:30 a.m. ET. Both teams are coming off a home win after a road loss in their previous game.
What the model expects
These are estimates, not certainties. The model's likelier result is a Washington Commanders win, giving the Washington Commanders 56.9%; it gives the Indianapolis Colts 43.1%.
The projection has the Washington Commanders at 28.4 points and the Indianapolis Colts at 26.6, for 55 in all. The model's projected margin is the Washington Commanders by 1.8 points.
Records and recent results
The Washington Commanders are 1-2 overall this season, with 75 points scored and 92 allowed in 3 games. The Indianapolis Colts are 1-2, with 72 points scored and 91 allowed in 3 games; the two sides have the same record.
The Washington Commanders beat the Seattle Seahawks 33-31 at home on September 27, and before that lost 37-20 on the road to the Dallas Cowboys on September 20. The Indianapolis Colts beat the Houston Texans 19-17 at home on September 27, and before that lost 33-30 on the road to the Kansas City Chiefs on September 20. Those results give each side a recent home victory to bring into this meeting, following a loss away from home.