Published September 28, 2026 · Updated October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Iceland host Bulgaria in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday, October 3 at 12:00 p.m. ET. The standings put Iceland above Bulgaria, and the model's outcome ranking points to Iceland as the leading result. The fixture gives Iceland a chance to build on its position, while Bulgaria have an opportunity to improve theirs.
The match is at Ice Rink Laugardalur, Reykjavik. The model's projected scoring gives Iceland the edge, while its leading exact scores include both a narrow win and a draw. The central question is whether Iceland can turn that projected advantage into a result.
What the model expects
The model's outcomes from likeliest down are an Iceland win (64.7%), then a draw (21.6%), then a Bulgaria win (13.7%). These are estimates. Its likeliest result is an Iceland win, and its lean is Iceland to win. A draw is the next outcome in the model's ordering, followed by an away win, leaving more than one plausible route through the match.
Expected goals are 2 for Iceland and 0.8 for Bulgaria. The model's most likely exact scores are 1-0 (11.8%) and 2-0 (11.8%), with 1-1 (10%) also among its leading possibilities. Those outcomes suggest that Iceland could find a winning margin without requiring a high-scoring match.
For the total, the model has over 2.5 goals at 52.6% and under 2.5 goals at 47.4%. Its both-teams-to-score estimate is 47.2%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 52.8%. The goals estimates are close, as are the probabilities around whether both teams score. The leading exact scores include a shutout as well as a level game, so the forecast allows for different match patterns.