Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Honduras host Jamaica in the CONCACAF Nations League on Monday, October 5 at 10:00 p.m. ET. The model’s top outcome is a home win, while the head-to-head record records Jamaica victories across the listed meetings. That sets the current forecast against the earlier results, without making the past a guide to how this fixture must unfold.
What the model expects
The model’s probabilities are estimates. Its outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Honduras win (43%), then a Jamaica win (29.9%), then a draw (27.1%). The result at the top of that forecast is a Honduras win. A draw and a Jamaica win also feature in the model’s outlook, so more than one result remains in its forecast.
For goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 48.2% and under 2.5 goals at 51.8%. Its estimate for both teams to score is 52.1%; the chance of at least one side failing to score is 47.9%. That second measure is not limited to a goalless draw: it also covers a match in which one team scores and the other does not.
Expected goals are 1.5 for Honduras and 1.1 for Jamaica. The model’s likeliest scorelines are 1-0 at 11.5%, 1-1 at 10.6% and 0-0 at 9.5%. Those possibilities include a narrow home win, a draw with goals and a goalless draw. The set gives several plausible scoring patterns, rather than a single scoreline that the model expects with certainty.
Team news
No team news is on file, and line-ups are not announced yet.