Published October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Guatemala host Suriname in the CONCACAF Nations League on Monday, October 5 at 8:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model gives the fixture a close, finely balanced shape: it names a Guatemala win as its likeliest result, but the draw and an away win remain live outcomes in the forecast. The task for both sides is to turn that uncertain outlook into a performance that settles the match on the pitch.
What the model expects
The model’s outcome ordering is a Guatemala win (40.7%), then a Suriname win (33.2%), then a draw (26.1%). These probabilities are estimates. Its likeliest result is a Guatemala win, with 40.7% attached to that outcome. The figures describe a contest without a runaway expectation: each possible result has a meaningful share of the model’s forecast.
For goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 49.2% and under 2.5 goals at 50.8%. It assigns 53.4% to both teams scoring, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 46.6%. Those figures frame the scoring question from two angles: the likely total and whether both attacks find a way through. Neither outcome is certain in the model’s view.
Expected goals are 1.7 for Guatemala and 1.2 for Suriname. The leading exact score is 1-1 at 11%; the other listed possibilities are 1-0 at 9.7% and 2-1 at 8.9%. The projections point to a game where a narrow margin or a share of the points are both plausible, with the scoring forecast leaving room for either side to affect the result.