Published September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Guadeloupe host St. Lucia in the CONCACAF Nations League on Monday, October 5 at 3:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm's model points towards a Guadeloupe win, while the expected-goals figures suggest a match in which Guadeloupe are projected to create more scoring threat. The question is whether that forecast is reflected in the scoreline or whether St. Lucia can make the outcome more open.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Guadeloupe win (64.1%), then a draw (22%), then a St. Lucia win (13.9%). Its lean is Guadeloupe to win, and its expected-goals figures are Guadeloupe 1.9 and St. Lucia 0.8. Together, those projections put the emphasis on whether Guadeloupe can turn its expected scoring contribution into a result.
The model has over 2.5 goals at 51.2% and under 2.5 goals at 48.8%. It gives both teams scoring 46.4%, while the chance of at least one side failing to score is 53.6%. The figures allow for different scoring patterns rather than pointing to a single script for the match.
The likeliest exact scores are 1-0 at 13.8%, 2-0 at 12% and 1-1 at 9.9%. The listed outcomes include Guadeloupe wins without a goal for St. Lucia, as well as a draw in which both teams score. These projections offer a more specific picture of the model's view, while leaving room for another scoreline.
Team news
No team news is on file yet, and line-ups have not been announced. The model projections are therefore the available guide to the fixture, rather than confirmed selection details.