Published October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Grenada host Bonaire in the CONCACAF Nations League on Monday, October 5 at 8:00 p.m. ET. The sides meet after a 3-2 away win against Bonaire on October 2, making the recent result a direct reference point for this fixture. The model’s view is clear on the likely outcome, while its goal projections leave room for a close contest.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes run a Grenada win (62.3%), then a draw (22.4%), then a Bonaire win (15.3%), and its likeliest result is a Grenada win. Its lean is Grenada to win, so the central expectation is a Grenada victory rather than a draw or a Bonaire win.
The expected-goals figures are Grenada 1.9 and Bonaire 0.8. The most likely score is 1-0 (13.3%), followed by 2-0 (11.7%) and 1-1 (10%). Those scorelines point to a match in which a narrow Grenada win is a prominent possibility, with a draw also represented among the model’s leading outcomes.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 49.2% and under 2.5 goals at 50.8%. Its both-teams-to-score view is 46%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 54%. Taken together, those figures describe a forecast that does not settle on an emphatically high-scoring game: the leading exact scores are tight, and the model allows for one side to finish without a goal.
Form and standings
Grenada’s recent record is WLL: 1 win and 2 defeats, with 3 goals scored and 8 conceded. The latest entry is a 3-2 away win against Bonaire on October 2, a result that gives the teams a fresh meeting to draw on without changing what the model predicts for this game.