Published September 28, 2026 · Updated October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Greece host Germany in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, October 4, with the sides separated in the group table despite the model making Germany its likeliest winner. The game is at Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki, with kick-off at 2:45 p.m. ET.
What the model expects
The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Germany win (48.8%), then a Greece win (26.1%), then a draw (25.1%). Those probabilities are estimates, but they point to a clear lean towards Germany rather than a balanced three-way call. The model’s expected-goals figures are Greece 1.2 and Germany 1.8, suggesting it expects Germany to create the greater share of the scoring threat.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 57.2% and under 2.5 goals at 42.8%, with both teams scoring at 58.4%; its chance of at least one side failing to score is 41.6%. The likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 11.3%, followed by 1-2 at 9% and 0-1 at 8.2%. Those score forecasts include both a draw and Germany victories, so the broader expectation is not tied to one precise match script.
Form and standings
Greece arrive unbeaten in their last 3. Their most recent result was a 2-2 home draw with Netherlands on October 1, and their form across the listed games is DWW: 2 wins and 1 draw, with 5 goals scored and 3 conceded. That sequence gives them a positive platform, while the latest draw shows their run has not been all wins.