Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Gibraltar 0–0 Andorra. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Gibraltar host Andorra in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, September 27 at 12:00 p.m. ET, with the model giving the visitors the largest share of the win probability. Its strongest signal, though, is a game with few goals: under 2.5 goals at 77% and under 2.5 goals.
The fixture is finely balanced on the result probabilities rather than pointing to a clear favourite. The model makes Andorra favourites at 38.2%, but places the draw at 33.5%, close behind; Gibraltar win at 28.3%. These probabilities are estimates.
What the model expects
The expected-goals figures are modest for both sides, at 0.7 for Gibraltar and 0.9 for Andorra. That profile fits the model's goals outlook: under 2.5 goals at 77%, against over 2.5 goals at 23% for the alternative. The chance of both teams scoring is 30.9%; the model gives 69.1% to a match in which at least one side does not score.
The most likely exact score is 0-0, with 24.3%. Next comes 0-1 at 16.2%, followed by 1-0 at 11.6%. Each of the leading scorelines is low-scoring, reinforcing the model's lean without making any one result a certainty. The range of outcomes still includes a home win, a draw and an away win, as the result probabilities show.
The bookmaker probabilities, with the margin removed, also give Andorra the largest share: 39.2%, compared with 34.9% for the draw and 26% for Gibraltar. The market and model therefore agree on which side is likelier to win, while both leave substantial room for a draw. The model's away-win probability is 38.2%; its draw probability is 33.5%, and its home-win probability is 28.3%.