Published September 28, 2026 · Updated October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
FYR Macedonia host Scotland in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday, October 3 at 2:45 p.m. ET, with the sides separated by a point in the group table. The model’s outcome order puts Scotland first, while the standings have Scotland above FYR Macedonia. The match is at Nacional Arena Todor Proeski, Skopje.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Scotland win (52.2%), then a draw (26.8%), then an FYR Macedonia win (21%). Its likeliest result is a Scotland win; the forecast still gives a draw and a home win their own place in the outcome picture.
Expected goals are 0.9 for FYR Macedonia and 1.6 for Scotland. That projection sets out the model’s expected scoring for each side, rather than a promised scoreline. The leading exact-score outcomes are 0-1 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.3%) and 0-0 (11%), spanning a Scotland win, a level score and a goalless draw.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 43.2% and under 2.5 goals at 56.8%. It assigns 45.4% to both teams scoring and 54.6% to at least one side failing to score. Those are related but distinct questions: a match can have goals without both sides scoring, while the exact-score forecast identifies individual outcomes rather than the overall goals range.
The bookmakers’ outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Scotland win (54.2%), then a draw (26.3%), then an FYR Macedonia win (19.6%). The model’s view against those prices is that the model gives a Scotland win 52.2%, below the bookmakers' 54.2%. The two forecasts therefore differ in the probability attached to Scotland winning, even though both put that outcome first.