Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
France host Belgium in the UEFA Nations League on Monday, October 5 at 2:45 p.m. ET. France sit above Belgium, and the model's likeliest result is a France win. The latest form entry for France is a 1-0 away win against Belgium on September 28; the most recent meeting between these sides was Belgium 1-2 France (October 2024).
What the model expects
The model gives France a 46.2% chance of winning, a draw 24.6%, and Belgium a 29.1% chance. These are estimates. The model's likeliest outcome is a France win, but its forecast also assigns a substantial possibility to either a draw or a Belgium win.
The expected-goals figures are 1.5 for France and 1.1 for Belgium. The model's goal figures put over 2.5 goals at 48.2% and under 2.5 goals at 51.8%. It gives both teams scoring a 51.6% chance, while the chance of at least one side failing to score is 48.4%; that outcome does not mean the match must finish goalless.
The leading exact-score prediction is 1-1 at 11.7%, followed by 0-0 at 11.3% and 1-0 at 10.4%. No single listed score accounts for a large share of the model's forecast. Together, the score predictions point to several plausible ways the match could unfold, rather than a result that the model treats as settled.
Form and standings
France have WWWL across their last 4 games, with 3 wins and 1 defeat and 8 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their current run is 3 wins in a row. The latest entry, a 1-0 away win against Belgium on September 28, was against the same opposition, giving this fixture a recent point of reference in France's form.