Published October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Florida State Seminoles visit the Louisville Cardinals in college football on Friday, October 9, with kickoff at 7:00 p.m. ET. The model gives the Louisville Cardinals the likelier result, while both teams enter with the same season record.
What the model expects
The model gives the Louisville Cardinals 69% and the Florida State Seminoles 31%; those probabilities are estimates, not certainties. Its projected score is Louisville Cardinals 35, Florida State Seminoles 28.6, with 63.6 points in all and a projected margin of the Louisville Cardinals by 6.4 points. The model's likelier result is a Louisville Cardinals win.
Records and recent results
The Louisville Cardinals are 2-2 overall this season, with 165 points scored and 115 allowed in 4 games. The Florida State Seminoles are 2-2, with 128 points scored and 101 allowed in 4 games; the two sides have the same record.
The Louisville Cardinals lost 30-27 at home to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on September 26, and before that beat the SMU Mustangs 41-31 at home on September 19. The Louisville Cardinals come into this game after a loss to Wake Forest and a win over SMU. Their latest result was close, while the previous one was a win; both are part of the recent run ahead of this meeting.
The Florida State Seminoles beat the Central Arkansas Bears 34-7 at home on September 26, and before that lost 50-36 on the road to the Alabama Crimson Tide on September 19. The Florida State Seminoles arrive after beating Central Arkansas, following a loss to Alabama. Their latest result was a win, with a road loss immediately before it. The model projects points for both teams and gives the Louisville Cardinals the likelier result in this matchup.