Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Florida Gators visit the Missouri Tigers in college football on Saturday, October 3, with kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET. Florida arrives unbeaten, while Missouri will play after a road loss; Goalorithm’s model favors the visitors. The model’s estimates are not certainties, but they point to a game with scoring expected from both teams.
Missouri’s latest result was a loss to the Mississippi State Bulldogs, while the Florida Gators most recently beat the Ole Miss Rebels. The model projects a close margin, making the result its central distinction rather than a one-sided forecast.
What the model expects
The model gives the Florida Gators 65.4% to win and the Missouri Tigers 34.6%. Its likelier result is a Florida Gators win. The projected score is Missouri 30.6, Florida 35.7, for 66.3 points overall, with the model projecting the Florida Gators by 5.1 points.
That forecast puts Florida ahead in the model’s expected scoring and gives the visitors the likelier win. Missouri’s projected total still makes this a game in which the Tigers are expected to contribute substantially on the scoreboard. The model’s margin is a projection, not a description of a result already settled.
Records and recent results
The Florida Gators are 4-0 overall this season, with 214 points scored and 91 allowed in 4 games. The Missouri Tigers are 3-1, with 143 points scored and 83 allowed in 4 games. The Florida Gators have the better record.