Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Fiorentina host Como in Serie A on Sunday, October 18, with Como sitting above their hosts in the table and the model's likeliest result a Como win. Fiorentina come into the fixture after a 2-1 away defeat to Genoa on October 10.
The match is at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence, with kick-off at 9:00 a.m. ET. Como's latest result was a 0-0 home draw with AS Roma on October 11, while Fiorentina lost their latest match. Both sides are without a win in their last 2 and without a win in their last 2.
What the model expects
The model's probabilities are estimates. It gives Como a win 49.2%, a Fiorentina win 26.4% and a draw 24.4%. Its outcomes from likeliest down are a Como win (49.2%), then a Fiorentina win (26.4%), then a draw (24.4%).
The expected-goals figures are Fiorentina 1 and Como 1.9. The most likely score is 0-1 (13.5%), followed by 0-2 (9.7%) and 1-2 (9.4%). Fiorentina do not score in the first two of those predicted results; the third has both sides on the scoresheet.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 53.8% and under 2.5 goals at 46.2% for the total-goals line. It puts both teams scoring at 52.6%, with at least one side failing to score at 47.4%. Those projections leave room for Fiorentina to find the net, while the model's likeliest result remains a Como win.
Form and standings
Fiorentina's recent sequence is LDWLL: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 7 goals scored and 10 conceded. They are without a win in their last 2, and their latest outing ended in defeat away to Genoa.