Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Estonia host Iceland in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, October 6 at 2:45 p.m. ET. The model's outcome sequence gives this fixture an away-win edge, with a draw and a home win also represented in its forecast. The table offers an early snapshot of the group, while the only meeting on file finished level.
There is no team news on file, and line-ups are not announced yet. That leaves the model's outcome and scoring estimates as the available guide to the contest, rather than any confirmed selection detail.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's likeliest result is an Iceland win, at 42.9%; its full ordering is an Iceland win (42.9%), then a draw (29%), then an Estonia win (28%). The expected-goals figures are 1.1 for Estonia and 1.5 for Iceland, while 1-1 is the likeliest exact score at 11.8%.
The next scorelines in the model's list are 0-0 at 11.3% and 0-1 at 10.2%. Together, those outcomes give a sense of the range in the forecast: the model includes a goalless draw, a narrow away win and a level game with a goal for each side. They are projections, not descriptions of what has happened in this fixture.
For the total-goals outlook, the model has under 2.5 goals at 51.8% and over 2.5 goals at 48.2%. Its estimate for both teams to score is 51.9%; the estimate for at least one side to fail to score is 48.1%. Those are separate ways of describing the scoring picture, with the scoreline list adding detail on the individual outcomes the model assigns most weight to.