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Match analysis · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

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Eritrea 0-5 South Africa: Match Analysis & Model Review

Eritrea 0-5 South Africa in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, Wednesday, September 30: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

The match finished a 5-0 win for South Africa over Eritrea in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Wednesday, September 30, with South Africa turning their pre-match status into a commanding result. Relebohile Mofokeng scored twice before the interval, and Sphephelo Sithole, Iqraam Rayners and Luther Singh added goals after the break.

The score at half-time was 0-2. South Africa continued to extend their advantage after the restart, while Eritrea finished without a goal. Only South Africa ever led, and their margin grew to a five-goal lead.

How it unfolded

Relebohile Mofokeng opened the scoring in the 19th minute, making it 0-1. He struck again in the 45th minute (+1), taking South Africa into the break ahead 0-2.

Sphephelo Sithole made it 0-3 in the 52nd minute. Iqraam Rayners added another in the 63rd minute, before Luther Singh completed the scoring in the 90th minute (+4), setting the final score at 0-5. Mofokeng scored two goals, establishing the early cushion; the later goals made the scale of the win unmistakable.

The numbers

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

South Africa recorded 22 shots to Eritrea’s 11, with 9 on target against 4. The possession split was 64% for South Africa and 36% for Eritrea. Those figures show South Africa creating more attempts and controlling more of the ball, while the target count reflects how often their attacks tested the goalkeeper.

South Africa also had 8 corners to Eritrea’s 6. The saves tally was level at 4 apiece, despite the difference in the final score. South Africa made their greater attacking output count, with four different scorers on the scoresheet.

Standout performers

Mofokeng was South Africa’s standout, earning 9.8 and scoring 2 goals. His goals gave South Africa their early advantage and made him the match’s leading scorer. Sithole, Rayners and Singh then supplied the finishing touches, spreading the scoring across the side.

I. Lundgren was Eritrea’s best-rated player, with 6.7. His rating came in a match where Eritrea faced a substantial attacking challenge, as South Africa produced a high volume of shots and repeatedly found the target.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pre-match probabilities were estimates: the model gave Eritrea a win chance of 10.1%, a draw 17.6%, and South Africa a win chance of 72.2%. South Africa to win was the model’s most likely outcome, and the model gave that outcome 72.2%.

The result matched the model’s call. South Africa’s emphatic victory was consistent with the pre-match view, and the scoring sequence confirmed that prediction as the match progressed.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Eritrea vs South Africa

Wed, Sep 30 · 12:00 PM ET · Al Salam Stadium

Full time

0–5

Half-time 0–2

  • 19'Relebohile Mofokeng0–1
  • 45'+1Relebohile Mofokeng0–2
  • 52'Sphephelo Sithole0–3
  • 63'Iqraam Rayners0–4
  • 90'+4Luther Singh0–5

The model before the game

Eritrea
10.1%
Draw
17.7%
South Africa
72.2%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

EritreaStatisticSouth Africa
4saves4
11shots22
6corners8
36%possession64%
4shots on target9
Open the Match Center

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