Internal use only
Skip to main content
GoalorithmSports intelligence
All Sports

Football

Upcoming GamesPredictionsPlayer ProjectionsParlay BuilderMy PicksBetting JournalResults

Intelligence

NewsModel PerformanceData Health

Explore

StandingsValue ScanPlayersCompetitions

Build your edge

Understand every number behind the call.

Learn the numbers Explore membership

Match intelligence

News

All sportsFootballBasketballMLBNFL

Football

News

All sportsFootballBasketballMLBNFL
GOALORITHM / FTB

Match analysis · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Research workspace

Equatorial Guinea 1-0 Sierra Leone: Match Analysis & Model Review

Equatorial Guinea 1-0 Sierra Leone in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, Monday, September 28: how the goal came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

← All news
Home / News / Soccer / Match analysis

Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Equatorial Guinea beat Sierra Leone in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Monday, September 28, with Lorenzo Zúñiga Owono scoring the decisive goal for Equatorial Guinea. The match finished 1-0 after Equatorial Guinea had led by the same score at half-time.

Sierra Leone had more of the ball and registered more attempts, but none of its shots was on target. Equatorial Guinea put two efforts on target and held on to its early lead. The match produced one goal, with Equatorial Guinea scoring one goal and Sierra Leone scoring no goals.

How it unfolded

Lorenzo Zúñiga Owono scored for Equatorial Guinea in the 1st minute, making it 1-0. It was the only goal of the match. Only Equatorial Guinea ever led, and the half-time score remained the final score.

The numbers

Equatorial Guinea had 8 shots to Sierra Leone's 10. On target, the figures were 2 for Equatorial Guinea and 0 for Sierra Leone. Possession was 39% for Equatorial Guinea and 61% for Sierra Leone.

There were 2 corners for Equatorial Guinea and 3 for Sierra Leone. The save figures were 0 for Equatorial Guinea and 1 for Sierra Leone. The numbers show that Sierra Leone had the greater share of possession and more attempts, while Equatorial Guinea scored and Sierra Leone did not register a shot on target.

More soccer news

All news →

SoccerPreview· Primeira Liga

Moreirense vs GIL Vicente Prediction & Preview (October 9)

Moreirense vs GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes GIL Vicente win the most likely result at 37.5%. Form, the table, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 1:45 PM ET

SoccerPreview· Eredivisie

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen Prediction & Preview (October 9)

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen in Eredivisie, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 72.7%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 2:00 PM ET

Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Standout performers

Equatorial Guinea's best-rated player was Rony Mbomio, rated 7.4. For Sierra Leone, the highest rating went to T. Fornah, with 7.0.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm's model gave Equatorial Guinea a 50.2% chance of winning, a draw 26.7% and a Sierra Leone win 23.1%. These probabilities are estimates. The model's most likely outcome was Equatorial Guinea to win, and it gave the actual result 50.2%. The model's most likely outcome happened; the final score was the model's 1st-likeliest score.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone

Mon, Sep 28 · 12:00 PM ET · Stade Ahmadou Ahidjo

Full time

1–0

Half-time 1–0

  • 1'Lorenzo Zúñiga Owono1–0

The model before the game

Equatorial Guinea
50.2%
Draw
26.7%
Sierra Leone
23.1%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

Equatorial GuineaStatisticSierra Leone
0saves1
8shots10
2corners3
39%possession61%
2shots on target0
Open the Match Center

SoccerPreview· Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction & Preview (October 9)

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 68.8%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 2:30 PM ET

SoccerPreview· Ligue 1

Lens vs Lyon Prediction & Preview (October 9)

Lens vs Lyon in Ligue 1, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes Lens win the most likely result at 37.4%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 2:45 PM ET