Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Dallas Cowboys visit the Houston Texans in the NFL on Sunday, October 4, with kickoff at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Houston Texans enter at 0-3, while the Dallas Cowboys are 1-2.
What the model expects
The model’s figures are estimates, not certainties. It gives the Houston Texans 24.8% to win and the Dallas Cowboys 75.2%, with a Dallas Cowboys win its likelier result.
The model projects 20.5 points for the Houston Texans and 27.3 for the Dallas Cowboys, with 47.8 in all. Its projected margin is the Dallas Cowboys by 6.8 points.
Records and recent results
The Houston Texans have 0-3 overall this season, with 54 points scored and 75 allowed in 3 games. The Dallas Cowboys have 1-2, with 88 points scored and 82 allowed in 3 games; the Dallas Cowboys have the better record.
The Houston Texans lost 19-17 on the road to the Indianapolis Colts on September 27, and before that lost 20-6 at home to the Cincinnati Bengals on September 20. The Dallas Cowboys lost 34-31 at home to the Baltimore Ravens on September 27, and before that beat the Washington Commanders 37-20 at home on September 20.