Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Cyprus host Latvia in the UEFA Nations League on Monday, October 5 at 12:00 p.m. ET. The model’s expected-goals figures are Cyprus 1.8 and Latvia 0.8, while its outcome forecast gives Cyprus the leading result position. The sides’ most recent meeting was a 0-0 home draw with Cyprus on September 28, providing a recent reference point for this fixture.
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are a Cyprus win (54.6%), then a draw (26.8%), then a Latvia win (18.6%).
What the model expects
Goalorithm projects 1.8 expected goals for Cyprus and 0.8 for Latvia. The goals outlook is under 2.5 goals at 51.8%, while over 2.5 goals at 48.2%. The forecast makes a home win the most likely outcome, while allowing for a draw or an away win.
The model gives both teams a scoring probability of 46.9%; its figure for at least one side failing to score is 53.1%. The likeliest exact score is 1-0 at 12.5%, followed by 2-0 at 11.2% and 0-0 at 11.1%. The leading scorelines include a narrow home win and a goalless draw, so the model does not point to just one exact-score outcome.
Form and standings
Cyprus sit 3rd in League C - Group B with 1 point from 2 games. Latvia sit 4th in League C - Group B with 1 point from 2 games; Cyprus sit above Latvia on the same points. The teams therefore have the same points total, with their positions adding a clear group context to the match.