Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Cuba 2–0 Bonaire. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Cuba host Bonaire in the CONCACAF Nations League on Monday, September 28 at 5:00 p.m. ET, with the match set for SKNFA Technical Center, Basseterre. Goalorithm’s model makes Cuba the likeliest winner, while keeping a draw and a Bonaire win in its forecast. The model’s estimates are not certainties; they set out how it assesses the possible outcomes and scoring patterns ahead of the game.
The expected-goals projection assigns Cuba 2.5 and Bonaire 0.7. These are estimates of each side’s expected contribution, not a predicted final score. They offer a separate view from the outright result probabilities: one describes projected goals, while the other assesses the possible match outcomes.
What the model expects
The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are a Cuba win (81%), then a draw (12.7%), then a Bonaire win (6.2%). Its goals figures are over 2.5 goals at 64% and under 2.5 goals at 36%. For both teams to score, the model gives 45.5%; it gives 54.5% for at least one side to fail to score. That latter possibility includes matches in which one team scores and the other does not, as well as a goalless draw.
The likeliest scorelines are 2-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.3%) and 3-0 (10.5%). Each has Cuba scoring and Bonaire failing to score. These are exact-score estimates, distinct from the broader assessment of who wins, and they represent only some of the possible outcomes. The model’s lean is Cuba to win.