Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Croatia host Spain in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, October 6 at 2:45 p.m. ET. Spain’s latest listed result was a 4-1 home win against Croatia on September 29, and the model’s likeliest result for this meeting is a Spain win.
The standings show both sides on the same points total: Spain sit above Croatia on the same points. The previous result provides recent context for the fixture, while the model’s forecast sets out a separate view of the match ahead.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes run a Spain win (48.2%), then a Croatia win (31.1%), then a draw (20.8%), making a Spain win its leading result while retaining the possibilities of a Croatia win or a draw. The forecast therefore gives a clear account of its preferred outcome without ruling out either alternative.
Its expected-goals figures are Croatia 1.1 and Spain 1.5. The model puts over 2.5 goals at 48.2% and under 2.5 goals at 51.8%; for both teams to score, it gives 51.6%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 48.4%. These are distinct parts of the forecast: the goals total and the chance of both sides scoring describe different questions about how the match could unfold.
The likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 11.7%, followed by 0-0 at 11.3% and 0-1 at 10.4%. The leading scoreline is level, while the other listed outcomes include a goalless draw and a narrow Spain win. Each carries its own probability, and none changes the broader outcome forecast. The model’s figures leave room for different types of game rather than pointing to one certain score.