Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Costa Rica host Haiti in the CONCACAF Nations League on Sunday, October 4 at 8:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model points to Haiti as the likeliest winner and expects a match with goals, while the recent head-to-head record offers a more mixed picture.
The probabilities are estimates, but the model’s view is clear: Haiti is its pick, and its scoring forecast gives both sides a substantial chance of finding the net. The meeting also comes with a recent result between these teams already on the record, making the model’s outlook and the head-to-head context the main points of interest.
What the model expects
The outcome order is a Haiti win (56%), then a Costa Rica win (23.3%), then a draw (20.7%). The model’s likeliest result is a Haiti win, at 56%; its overall lean is Haiti to win. Those figures make Haiti the central choice in the forecast, though the model also assigns probabilities to a Costa Rica win and a draw.
For the goals market, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 67.9% and under 2.5 goals at 32.1%. It puts both teams scoring at 67.2%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 32.8%. Together, those figures describe a forecast in which goals from both teams are a prominent possibility, alongside a meaningful route to a blank for one side.
Expected goals are 1.4 for Costa Rica and 2 for Haiti. The most likely scorelines listed by the model are 1-1 at 8.7%, 1-2 at 7.9% and 0-1 at 7.4%. The score options include a draw as well as Haiti victories, so the leading exact-score possibilities do not all point to the same match outcome. These are individual scoreline estimates, distinct from the broader result forecast.