Published September 29, 2026 · Updated October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Comoros host Senegal in a friendly on Sunday, October 4, with kick-off at 9:00 a.m. ET. Goalorithm’s estimates make a Senegal win the likeliest result, but the draw also has a substantial place in the forecast. The model’s score projections include both a level score and a narrow Senegal lead.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Comoros 24.6%, a draw 29.1% and Senegal 46.2%; its likeliest result is a Senegal win. Its full outcome order is a Senegal win (46.2%), then a draw (29.1%), then a Comoros win (24.6%).
The expected-goals figures are 1.1 for Comoros and 1.6 for Senegal. The model puts over 2.5 goals at 49.2% and under 2.5 goals at 50.8%, leaving the total-goals outlook close. It gives both teams a chance to score at 51.9%; the chance of at least one side failing to score is 48.1%.
The leading correct-score projections are 1-1 at 12.6%, 0-1 at 10.1% and 0-0 at 9.2%. The first and third scores are level; 0-1 has Senegal ahead. Those projections capture a forecast in which a draw is prominent alongside a narrow Senegal win, rather than one scoreline dominating the model’s view.
Form and standings
Comoros come into the match on WWWL, with 3 wins and 1 defeat across their last 4 games. They have recorded 8 goals scored and 4 conceded, and their most recent result was a 1-0 away win against Equatorial Guinea on June 9. Their current run is 3 wins in a row, giving them a sequence of recent results to carry into this fixture.