Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Colombia host Peru in a friendly on Tuesday, October 6 at 7:45 p.m. ET. The model points to a Colombia win, but its outlook also leaves room for a draw or a Peru win, making the balance of the contest more than a formality.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Colombia 45.3%, the draw 24.7% and Peru 30%; its likeliest result is a Colombia win. That makes Colombia the model's choice, though the figures still assign meaningful chances to either alternative. The forecast is directional rather than a prediction of a runaway: the model's expected goals are 1.9 for Colombia and 1.1 for Peru.
The model's goals outlook leans towards over 2.5 goals at 58.7%, with under 2.5 goals at 41.3% also part of the picture. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 58.1%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 41.9%. Those figures suggest a game where goals from both sides are plausible, without ruling out a shutout.
The likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 10.5%. The next listed outcomes are 1-0 and 2-0, each at 8.9% and 8.9% respectively. The leading score is level, while the other two give Colombia a win to nil; together, they reflect the model's expectation of a competitive match rather than a single certain script.
Form and standings
Colombia's recent sequence reads DWWLL, a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Across those games, they have 8 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their latest outing was a 1-1 away draw with Mexico on September 26, and they are unbeaten in their last 3. The sequence includes both victories and defeats, so the recent run is not an uninterrupted surge; the draw in the latest match nevertheless extends the current unbeaten stretch.