Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
China host Tajikistan in a friendly on Tuesday, October 6 at 7:35 a.m. ET. Both sides come into the fixture after defeats, and their most recent meeting ended China 0-0 Tajikistan (January 2024). The model's likeliest result is a China win; its probabilities are estimates.
The recent results give this friendly a clear point of focus: can either side turn a defeat into a more positive performance? The available form and the previous meeting provide context, while the model projects a contest in which China has the likeliest result.
What the model expects
The model gives China 46.8%, a draw 25.7% and Tajikistan 27.6%. Its expected-goals figures are 1.8 for China and 1.1 for Tajikistan. For the total-goals line, it gives over 2.5 goals at 48.2% and under 2.5 goals at 51.8%.
The model assigns 51.2% to both teams scoring and 48.8% to at least one side failing to score. The likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 10.9%, with 1-0 at 9.9% and 0-0 at 9.5% also among the leading scorelines. Those scores frame a range of possible patterns, from both sides finding the net to one or both being shut out.
Form and standings
China's recent sequence is LWDWD. Its record is 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 7 goals scored and 6 conceded; the latest result was a 3-0 home defeat to New Zealand on September 27. That defeat is the immediate result for China to respond to, and the model's expected-goals figure gives a measure of the scoring it projects for the hosts in this fixture.