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GOALORITHM / FTB

Match analysis · Friendlies

Research workspace

Canada 1-0 Chile: Match Analysis & Model Review

Canada 1-0 Chile in a friendly, Saturday, September 26: how the goal came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Match report

A 1-0 win for Canada over Chile in a friendly on Saturday, September 26, with Canada leading at half-time and holding that advantage through to the final whistle. Jonathan David scored in the 12th minute, and only Canada ever led. The result was settled by that finish, with Canada scoring one goal and Chile no goals.

The match offered a narrow margin and a clear turning point in the scoring: Canada got in front early, and the score did not change afterwards. The two dismissals for Chile came after the goal, adding further events to a game in which Canada’s lead remained intact.

How it unfolded

Jonathan David put Canada ahead in the 12th minute, making the score 1-0. Canada went into the break with a 1-0 advantage, and the eventual score was 1-0.

L. Cepeda of Chile was sent off in the 35th minute. G. Suazo of Chile followed with a dismissal in the 50th minute. Only Canada ever led, and neither side added another goal. The sequence left the early strike as the decisive moment: it gave Canada the lead, and no later goal altered the result.

The numbers

Canada registered 5 shots, with 3 on target; Chile recorded 3, including 2 on target. Those attempts show that both teams tested the opposition goal, but the scoring belonged to Canada. The final tally was one goal in all.

Possession was 53% for Canada and 47% for Chile. The corner count was 2 apiece. Canada’s goalkeeper made 2 saves, while Chile’s made 2. The figures describe a match with efforts and saves at both ends, but the only goal came from Canada.

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Standout performers

Jonathan David was Canada’s best-rated player, earning 8.0 and recording 1 goal. His goal was the moment that separated the sides, making his contribution central to the outcome. Darío Osorio was Chile’s best-rated player, with a rating of 7.3.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pre-match probabilities are estimates. Before kickoff, the model gave Canada a win probability of 55.3%, a draw probability of 25.6%, and Chile a win probability of 19.1%. Its most likely outcome was Canada to win, with an estimated probability of 55.3%.

The model's most likely outcome happened. The prediction therefore identified the result that followed, with Canada turning the model’s pre-match selection into the final outcome. The match itself was decided by the early goal, while the later dismissals and the recorded attempts and possession provide the wider picture of how the contest unfolded.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Friendlies

Canada vs Chile

Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET · BMO Field

Full time

1–0

Half-time 1–0

  • 12'J. David1–0

The model before the game

Canada
55.3%
Draw
25.6%
Chile
19.1%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

CanadaStatisticChile
2saves2
5shots3
2corners2
53%possession47%
3shots on target2
Open the Match Center

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