Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The California Golden Bears visit the UNLV Rebels in college football on Saturday, October 3, with kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET. The model's likelier result is a UNLV Rebels win, but its projected points are close: UNLV Rebels 23.6 and California Golden Bears 22.8.
Both teams enter at 2-2, and their recent results offer contrasting notes: UNLV Rebels are coming off a road win, while California Golden Bears most recently lost at home.
What the model expects
The model gives the UNLV Rebels 52.7% and the California Golden Bears 47.3%; those chances are estimates, not certainties. It projects 46.4 points in all and a margin of the UNLV Rebels by 0.8 points.
The projected score is UNLV Rebels 23.6, California Golden Bears 22.8.
Records and recent results
The UNLV Rebels are 2-2 overall this season, with 86 points scored and 87 allowed in 4 games. The California Golden Bears are 2-2, with 104 points scored and 94 allowed in 4 games; the two sides have the same record.
The UNLV Rebels beat the Akron Zips 38-10 on the road on September 26. The California Golden Bears lost 24-10 at home to the Clemson Tigers on September 25, and before that beat the Wagner Seahawks 49-7 at home on September 19.