Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Brighton host Crystal Palace in the Premier League on Sunday, October 18 at 9:00 a.m. ET. The model’s leading outcome is a home victory, while the latest meeting ended with a win for Crystal Palace. Brighton arrive on a winning run, and Crystal Palace come off a victory of their own.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is a Brighton win. It gives Brighton 59.3%, a draw 22.5% and Crystal Palace 18.1%; these probabilities are estimates. Expected goals are 1.9 for Brighton and 0.6 for Crystal Palace. The likeliest exact score is 2-0, followed by 1-0 and 0-0, leaving a range of possible outcomes that includes both a home win and a goalless draw.
The model puts under 2.5 goals at 55.3% against over 2.5 goals at 44.7%. It gives both teams scoring 38.2%, while the chance of at least one side failing to score is 61.7%. The goals and scoring probabilities point to a match in which a clean sheet is a substantial possibility, while the expected-goals figures give a sense of the model’s forecast for each side.
Form and standings
Brighton’s recent sequence is WWWDL, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat and 14 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their latest outing was a 2-0 away win against Sunderland on October 10; they have also put together 3 wins in a row. That run is the immediate form story for Brighton heading into the fixture. Their recent record includes wins, a draw and a defeat, with the goal figures offering further context for the stretch.