Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Bournemouth host Sunderland in the Premier League on Sunday, October 18, with both sides looking to arrest difficult runs of results. The model makes Bournemouth the likeliest winner, while the standings show Sunderland sit above Bournemouth.
The match is at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, with kick-off scheduled for 9:00 a.m. ET. The model's expectation of goals and its projected scorelines point to a contest where the result remains open, rather than a clear separation between the teams.
What the model expects
The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Bournemouth win (43.7%), then a Sunderland win (29.1%), then a draw (27.2%). These are estimates. Its expected goals are 1.8 for Bournemouth and 1.4 for Sunderland, while its goals lean is over 2.5 goals.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 61% and under 2.5 goals at 39%. It expects both teams to score in 62.4%, while 37.6% is the chance that at least one side fails to score. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), followed by 2-1 (8.6%) and 0-0 (8.2%).
That spread of projected outcomes gives the match a close shape: Bournemouth lead the model's ordering, but the draw and a Sunderland win remain substantial possibilities. The scoreline projections also cover both a level game and a narrow home win, alongside a goalless draw.
Form and standings
Bournemouth have 3 draws and 2 defeats across their latest 5 games, with 6 goals scored and 11 conceded. Their most recent result was a 5-1 away defeat to Chelsea on October 10, and they are on 2 defeats in a row. The run leaves little room for comfort as they prepare to face another side seeking points.