Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Bosnia & Herzegovina host Poland in the UEFA Nations League on Monday, October 5, with kick-off at 2:45 p.m. ET. The table has Bosnia & Herzegovina above Poland, while Goalorithm’s model places a Poland win first among its possible outcomes.
What the model expects
The model’s probabilities are estimates. Its outcome order is a Poland win (38.5%), then a Bosnia & Herzegovina win (36.7%), then a draw (24.8%). That ordering makes Poland’s win the leading outcome, but the model also gives substantial probability to a Bosnia & Herzegovina win and to a draw; the match is not reduced to a single forecast.
The goal projections point to a restrained scoring outlook. The model assigns under 2.5 goals at 51.8% and over 2.5 goals at 48.2%, with expected goals of 1.2 for Bosnia & Herzegovina and 1.3 for Poland. Its most likely exact score is 1-1 at 12.1%; 0-0 at 11.8% and 0-1 at 9.2% complete the leading scorelines.
The model gives 52.9% to both teams scoring and 47.1% to at least one side failing to score. Those forecasts describe different ways the game could unfold: the scoreline projections include both a level contest and outcomes with a single team scoring.
Form and standings
Bosnia & Herzegovina sit 2nd in League B - Group D with 4 points from 2 games, while Poland are 3rd in League B - Group D with 1 point from 2 games. Bosnia & Herzegovina sit above Poland. Those positions frame a meeting between teams with different records in the group so far, but the model’s outlook still makes Poland’s win its leading result rather than treating the table order as a prediction.