Published September 29, 2026 · Updated October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Bolivia host Gambia in a friendly on Sunday, October 4 at 6:30 p.m. ET. The model’s outcome order puts Bolivia first, but the projections also leave a substantial route to a Gambia result. Recent results give both sides questions to answer, with Bolivia coming off a heavy defeat and Gambia also losing their latest outing.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcome order is a Bolivia win (38.2%), then a Gambia win (36.8%), then a draw (24.9%), making a Bolivia win its likeliest result without separating the teams by a wide margin in its outlook. A draw remains part of the forecast, while the result probabilities describe a contest in which neither side has overwhelming backing from the model.
The goals projection points to over 2.5 goals at 63.5%; the model also gives both teams scoring 64.3%. Its expected-goals figures are 1.9 for Bolivia and 1.5 for Gambia. Taken together, those forecasts sketch a game with scoring on the model’s agenda, rather than a projection built around one team keeping the other out.
The leading exact-score possibilities are 1-1 (10.6%), 2-1 (8.6%) and 1-2 (7%). The model does not concentrate its forecast on a single scoreline: each of those outcomes has a distinct probability, and the listed possibilities include both a level finish and wins for either side.