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Match analysis · UEFA Europa League

Research workspace

Benfica 4-1 Celtic: Match Analysis & Model Review

Benfica 4-1 Celtic in the UEFA Europa League, Thursday, October 15: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Benfica 4-1 Celtic in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with Benfica ahead 3-0 at the break. The scoring began with a penalty and continued with two more Benfica goals before half-time; Celtic replied after the interval, but Benfica added the final goal.

Benfica finished with four goals and Celtic with one goal. Only Benfica ever led.

How it unfolded

Jhon Durán converted a penalty for Benfica in the 5th minute, making it 1-0. Alexander Bah extended the lead in the 23rd minute, then Jhon Durán scored in the 36th minute to make it 3-0. That was a three-goal lead for Benfica, and Jhon Durán had completed a brace.

Celtic got on the scoresheet through Camilo Duran in the 63rd minute, making it 3-1. Benfica answered with the last goal, scored by Vangelis Pavlidis in the 89th minute.

The numbers

Benfica recorded 26 shots, with Celtic taking 14. Both sides put 7 shots on target. The expected-goals figures were 2.78 for Benfica and 1.31 for Celtic, while possession stood at 53% for Benfica and 47% for Celtic.

The corner count was 8 for Benfica and 6 for Celtic. Benfica's goalkeeper made 6 saves; Celtic's made 3. The game produced five goals in all.

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Standout performers

G. Prestianni was Benfica's best-rated player, with a rating of 8.6 and 2 assists. C. Durán earned Celtic's highest rating, 7.3, and recorded 1 goal. Jhon Durán's two goals supplied a key part of Benfica's scoring, while Alexander Bah and Vangelis Pavlidis also found the net.

How the model called it

The probabilities are estimates. Before kick-off, Goalorithm's model gave Benfica a win probability of 78.1%, a draw probability of 13.6%, and Celtic a win probability of 8.3%. Its most likely outcome was Benfica to win, and the model gave the actual result a probability of 78.1%. The model's most likely outcome happened.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Europa League

Benfica vs Celtic

Thu, Oct 15 · 3:00 PM ET · Estádio da Luz

Full time

4–1

Half-time 3–0

  • 5'Jhon Durán (penalty)1–0
  • 23'Alexander Bah2–0
  • 36'Jhon Durán3–0
  • 63'Camilo Duran3–1
  • 89'Vangelis Pavlidis4–1

The model before the game

Benfica
78.1%
Draw
13.6%
Celtic
8.3%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

BenficaStatisticCeltic
6saves3
26shots14
8corners6
53%possession47%
2.78expected goals1.31
7shots on target7
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