Published September 30, 2026 · Updated October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Bahamas host US Virgin Islands in the CONCACAF Nations League on Sunday, October 4 at 4:00 p.m. ET, with the model's likeliest result a US Virgin Islands win. The forecast points to goals at both ends as a meaningful possibility, while the recent meeting between these sides offers a direct reference ahead of the rematch.
What the model expects
The model's outcomes from likeliest down are a US Virgin Islands win (68.2%), then a draw (18%), then a Bahamas win (13.8%). These probabilities are estimates; the forecast gives US Virgin Islands the clearest path to a win, with a draw and a Bahamas victory also in view. Its stated lean is US Virgin Islands to win.
Expected goals are 1.3 for Bahamas and 2.9 for US Virgin Islands, a projection that gives the visitors the larger attacking expectation. The likeliest exact score is 1-2 (8%), followed by 1-3 (7.5%) and 0-2 (6.5%). Each listed score has US Virgin Islands ahead, while the first two also have Bahamas on the scoresheet.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 77.6% and under 2.5 goals at 22.4%. It assigns 68% to both teams scoring and 32% to at least one side failing to score. Taken together, those goal forecasts leave room for Bahamas to contribute, but keep a visitors' win at the centre of the prediction.
Form and standings
US Virgin Islands come into the match after LWW in their last 3 games, a record of 2 wins and 1 defeat. Across that spell, they have 5 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their latest result was a 5-0 home defeat to Saint Martin on October 1, a stark setback immediately before this fixture. The sequence includes wins as well as that defeat, and the recent loss gives the visitors a result to respond to against Bahamas.