Published September 28, 2026 · Updated October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Azerbaijan host Lithuania in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, October 4 at 9:00 a.m. ET, with the teams occupying different places in League D - Group B. Lithuania sit above Azerbaijan.
The match is at Bakcell Arena, Baku. The standings frame the fixture, while Goalorithm’s model gives its likeliest result as an Azerbaijan win. Its outcome order is set out below, alongside the group positions and the record between the teams.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are an Azerbaijan win (39%), then a draw (30.8%), then a Lithuania win (30.3%). That ordering places each possible match outcome in sequence, with the draw and either side’s win all represented in the model.
For the goals market, the model expects under 2.5 goals at 63.6%, compared with over 2.5 goals at 36.4%. It assigns 42.7% to both teams scoring and 57.3% to at least one side failing to score. The expected-goals figures are Azerbaijan 1.2 and Lithuania 1.
The likeliest scores are 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (13.7%) and 1-0 (12.5%). These are the model’s leading exact-score outcomes. Against the bookmakers, the model gives an Azerbaijan win 39%, below the bookmakers' 40.4%.
Form and standings
Azerbaijan sit 2nd in League D - Group B with 2 points from 2 games, while Lithuania are 1st in League D - Group B with 4 points from 2 games. Lithuania sit above Azerbaijan. The positions and points totals describe the teams’ current places in the group; the model’s match outlook is given separately above.