Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Auxerre host Le Mans in Ligue 1 on Sunday, October 25 at 12:15 p.m. ET. The table shows Le Mans sit above Auxerre on the same points, while the model gives the fixture a narrow spread of possible outcomes rather than a dominant probability. Both sides arrive with contrasting recent sequences, and the forecast points towards goals as a central feature of the contest.
The latest results set a clear immediate backdrop: Auxerre won away, while Le Mans lost at home. The model's likeliest result is an Auxerre win, but its other outcome probabilities keep a draw and an away win firmly in the picture.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Auxerre 43.4%, a draw 26.3% and Le Mans 30.3%. Its likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 10.9%, followed by 2-1 at 9% and 1-0 at 8.1%; no single scoreline accounts for a large share of the forecast.
The model's lean is over 2.5 goals: over 2.5 goals at 58.5%, compared with under 2.5 goals at 41.5%. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 59.7%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 40.3%. Expected goals are 1.8 for Auxerre and 1.3 for Le Mans, a projection that gives each side a route to the scoresheet without ruling out a clean sheet.
Form and standings
Auxerre’s last 5 games read WLWWL, amounting to 3 wins and 2 defeats and 8 goals scored and 9 conceded. Their most recent outing was a 3-1 away win against Le Havre on October 18. That win followed a sequence containing both victories and defeats, so the latest result provides a positive immediate note without changing the mixed picture in the listed form.