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GOALORITHM / FTB

Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Austria 3-1 Kosovo: Match Analysis & Model Review

Austria 3-1 Kosovo in the UEFA Nations League, Sunday, September 27: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Austria beat Kosovo 3-1 in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, September 27, with David Affengruber, Junior Chukwubuike Adamu and Carney Chukwuemeka scoring before Edon Zhegrova replied from the penalty spot. Austria led 2-0 at half-time, and only Austria ever led.

The final score was a 3-1 win for Austria over Kosovo. Austria scored three goals, while Kosovo scored one goal, making four goals in all. Austria held a three-goal lead at 3-0 before the penalty reduced the margin. The match was played at Ernst Happel Stadion.

How it unfolded

David Affengruber scored for Austria in the 23rd minute, making it 1-0. Junior Chukwubuike Adamu added Austria's next goal in the 45th minute (+2), taking the score to 2-0 before the interval. The break arrived with Austria leading 2-0.

The next goal came in the 61st minute, when Carney Chukwuemeka made it 3-0 for Austria. Kosovo got on the scoresheet in the 83rd minute: Edon Zhegrova converted a penalty to make it 3-1. The sequence left Austria in front from the first goal to the final whistle, with the late penalty changing the score but not the identity of the winner.

The numbers

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Austria registered 10 shots and Kosovo 3; the shots on target were 6 and 0 respectively. Those figures show that Austria put efforts on target, while Kosovo did not. The saves count was 0 for Austria and 3 for Kosovo.

Possession stood at 54% for Austria and 46% for Kosovo. The corner count was 5 for Austria and 1 for Kosovo. Together, the recorded figures give a picture of the match’s shooting, possession and set-piece activity without changing the central story: Austria scored the goals that established the lead, and Kosovo's penalty came later.

Standout performers

J. Adamu was Austria's best-rated player, receiving 7.8 with 1 goal. The goal made him part of the scoring that built Austria's lead, and his rating marks him out among the recorded individual performances.

E. Zhegrova was Kosovo's best-rated player, also receiving 7.8, with 1 goal. His penalty supplied Kosovo's goal in the closing stages. Both sides' top-rated players therefore scored, though their goals came at different points in a match whose lead remained with Austria.

How the model called it

The pre-match probabilities are estimates. Before kickoff, Goalorithm's model gave Austria a win probability of 61.5%, a draw probability of 22.3% and Kosovo a win probability of 16.2%. The model's most likely outcome was Austria to win, with 61.5% attached; the model's most likely outcome happened.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Austria vs Kosovo

Sun, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM ET · Ernst Happel Stadion

Full time

3–1

Half-time 2–0

  • 23'David Affengruber1–0
  • 45'+2Junior Chukwubuike Adamu2–0
  • 61'Carney Chukwuemeka3–0
  • 83'Edon Zhegrova (penalty)3–1

The model before the game

Austria
61.5%
Draw
22.3%
Kosovo
16.2%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

AustriaStatisticKosovo
0saves3
10shots3
5corners1
54%possession46%
6shots on target0
Open the Match Center

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