Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Atlanta Falcons visit the New Orleans Saints in the NFL on Monday, October 5, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Both teams are 1-2 overall this season, and the model’s likelier result is a New Orleans Saints win. Their latest results offer contrasting recent outcomes, while the model projects a game with points for both sides.
This matchup brings the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons together with the same season record. For the New Orleans Saints, the immediate task is to respond to a home loss; the Atlanta Falcons arrive after a road win. Those results are part of each team’s recent sequence, but neither changes the fact that the records are level heading into this game.
What the model expects
Goalorithm’s projections are estimates, not certainties. The model gives the New Orleans Saints 70.2% and the Atlanta Falcons 29.8%; its likelier result is a New Orleans Saints win.
The projected score is New Orleans Saints 26.2 and Atlanta Falcons 20.9, for 47.1 points in all. The model projects the New Orleans Saints by 5.3 points. That expectation places the New Orleans Saints ahead in the model’s projected result, while the Atlanta Falcons remain in the game’s projected scoring picture.
Records and recent results
The New Orleans Saints are 1-2 overall this season, with 81 points scored and 83 allowed in 3 games. The Atlanta Falcons are 1-2, with 51 points scored and 68 allowed in 3 games; the two sides have the same record.