Published September 29, 2026 · Updated October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Argentina host Burkina Faso in a friendly on Saturday, October 3 at 8:00 p.m. ET. The model's likeliest result is an Argentina win, and the form figures offer a contrast: Argentina arrive on a winning run, while Burkina Faso are without a win in their last 3.
The fixture is at Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires. The central question in the numbers is whether Burkina Faso can turn a recent record that includes wins and draws into a result against an Argentina side whose latest outing was emphatic. The model points firmly toward the hosts, while its projected scorelines all have Burkina Faso failing to score.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes from likeliest down are an Argentina win (78.8%), then a draw (13.7%), then a Burkina Faso win (7.6%). Its stated lean is Argentina to win, making the hosts the clear call in its forecast without removing the possibility of a draw or an away win.
Expected goals are 2.8 for Argentina and 0.7 for Burkina Faso. That projection puts the larger share of the expected scoring with the hosts. The goals view is over 2.5 goals at 64.5% and under 2.5 goals at 35.5%; the model gives both teams scoring 44.2%, while at least one side fails to score is put at 55.8%.
The leading exact-score projections are 2-0 (12.6%), 3-0 (11%) and 1-0 (9.3%). Each has Argentina scoring and Burkina Faso held scoreless, though the model also allows for goals from both sides in its broader assessment. The bookmakers' outcomes from likeliest down are an Argentina win (80.6%), then a draw (13%), then a Burkina Faso win (6.4%); the model gives an Argentina win 78.8%, below the bookmakers' 80.6%.