Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Argentina host Benin in a friendly on Tuesday, October 6 at 7:00 p.m. ET, with the model's forecast centred on an Argentina win. The expected-goals figures are 2.7 for Argentina and 0.6 for Benin, while each of the listed exact-score predictions has Benin failing to score. The match is at Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's likeliest result is an Argentina win; its outcomes from likeliest down are an Argentina win (68.9%), then a Benin win (16.1%), then a draw (15.1%). Its lean is Argentina to win, while the draw and a Benin win remain part of the forecast. The model's stated ordering gives a clear account of how it distributes the possible outcomes, without removing either alternative from consideration.
The expected-goals projection is Argentina 2.7 and Benin 0.6. The listed exact-score predictions are 2-0 (13.1%), 3-0 (11.4%) and 1-0 (9.9%). Each has Argentina scoring and Benin failing to score; these are the model's most prominent exact-score possibilities, not a guarantee of how the match will finish.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 66% and under 2.5 goals at 34%. It assigns 44.7% to both teams scoring and 55.3% to at least one side failing to score. The latter figure concerns whether both teams score: it includes outcomes where one team scores and the other does not, and does not mean the match must finish goalless. In combination, the goals and scoring figures set out the model's expectations for the match without making a single exact score certain.