Published October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Antigua and Barbuda host Aruba in the CONCACAF Nations League on Tuesday, October 6, with kick-off at 7:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model gives the visitors the clearest route to a win, but the likeliest score is a draw and the head-to-head record includes wins for both sides.
That leaves a match with competing signals rather than a single obvious script. The model’s outcome order favours Aruba, while the most recent meeting was a narrow Aruba win and the broader meeting record has Antigua and Barbuda taking more of the wins.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are an Aruba win (46.3%), then an Antigua and Barbuda win (28.3%), then a draw (25.3%). Its likeliest result is an Aruba win.
Expected goals are 1.1 for Antigua and Barbuda and 1.5 for Aruba. That projection gives Aruba the larger expected-goals figure, while the model still allows for a home win or a draw among its possible outcomes.
The likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 11.8%, with 0-1 at 11.4% and 0-0 at 8.6% also among the leading scorelines. Those scores sketch out a match that could remain close: one has the sides level with a goal each, another has Aruba winning by a goal, and the third has neither side scoring.
For the total-goals line, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 49.2% and under 2.5 goals at 50.8%. It assigns 52.5% to both teams scoring, while 47.5% is the probability that at least one side fails to score. These figures leave room for different kinds of game: a scoreless outcome appears among the leading exact scores, but so does a score with a goal for each team.