Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Angola host Malawi in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, October 6 at 3:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model makes an Angola win the leading outcome, with a draw and an away win also in its forecast. The fixture brings the sides together in qualification, and the model’s expected-goals figures add a view of how it sees the scoring taking shape.
What the model expects
These figures are estimates. The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are an Angola win (62.6%), then a draw (27.1%), then a Malawi win (10.3%). Its lean is Angola to win, and its expected goals are Angola 2 and Malawi 0.6. Those projections set out the scoring the model expects from each side; the outcome probabilities express its assessment of a home win, a draw or an away win. They are different parts of the forecast, with the expected-goals figures describing scoring rather than the match result.
The model’s likeliest score forecasts are 1-0 (15.5%), 2-0 (14%) and 0-0 (9.5%). The list includes home-win scores as well as a goalless draw, giving a more specific expression of possible results than the broader outcome probabilities. Each score is a projection, not a certainty about how the match will finish.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 48.2% and under 2.5 goals at 51.8%. It assigns 39.8% to both teams scoring and 60.2% to at least one side failing to score. That latter outcome does not mean the model expects a goalless draw: it also covers a match in which one team scores and the other does not. These goal and scoring estimates add another dimension to the model’s assessment alongside its result forecast.