Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Albania host San Marino in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, October 6 at 2:45 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model gives an Albania win, with expected goals of 2.4 for Albania and 0.2 for San Marino. Its leading exact-score forecast is a home win to nil, while its goal estimates leave room for different ways the match could unfold.
The figures project most of the scoring to come from Albania, with a low expected-goals return for San Marino. The model’s lean is Albania to win; its forecast does not make a high total the only route to that outcome.
What the model expects
The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are an Albania win (89.4%), then a draw (8.4%), then a San Marino win (2.2%). These probabilities are estimates. Its expected-goals figures are Albania 2.4 and San Marino 0.2, assigning most of the anticipated scoring to Albania.
For the total, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 49% and under 2.5 goals at 51%. Its both-teams-to-score estimate is 16.5%, while the chance of at least one side failing to score is 83.5%. That latter figure concerns a team drawing a blank, not specifically a goalless draw. The scoring outlook therefore leaves a clear possibility of at least one side failing to find the net, while the total-goals estimates are close.
The likeliest exact score is 2-0 at 20.1%. The next listed score is 1-0 at 18%, followed by 3-0 at 15.8%. Each forecast has Albania winning without conceding. These are the model’s leading exact-score outcomes, rather than a prediction that one precise score is certain.