Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
AC Milan host Atalanta in Serie A on Sunday, October 18, with kick-off at 12:00 p.m. ET. The model gives AC Milan the likeliest result, while the clubs bring different recent records into the fixture.
What the model expects
These are estimates. The model gives AC Milan a 53.6% chance of winning, a draw 22.6%, and an Atalanta win 23.8%. Its likeliest result is an AC Milan win. The expected-goals figures are 2.2 for AC Milan and 0.2 for Atalanta, setting out the model's projected scoring totals for each side.
The model assigns under 2.5 goals at 55.7% and over 2.5 goals at 44.3%. It gives both teams scoring a 19.4% chance; 80.6% is the probability that at least one side fails to score. The most prominent exact-score possibilities are 1-0 (20.2%), 2-0 (20.1%) and 3-0 (14.6%). Those scores all have AC Milan ahead, but they remain separate outcomes rather than a single prediction of the final score.
Form and standings
AC Milan have 2 wins and 3 draws across their last 5 matches, with 9 goals scored and 4 conceded. The sequence, listed most recent first, is DWDDW; the latest result was a 1-1 away draw with Sassuolo on October 11. AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 5.
Atalanta have 2 wins and 3 defeats in their last 5, with 6 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their sequence is WLLLW, and their latest result was a 3-1 home win against Venezia on October 12. That gives the visitors a win in their most recent listed match, alongside the broader record shown in their form.