3 of 7 matches on Fri 25 Sep are priced by a blend of our model and the bookmakers; 3 are priced by the bookmakers; 1 has no prediction yet. How each source has done
Every number says whose it is. No sport's numbers are validated as better than the bookmakers' yet. How we grade
Upset: Bermuda were the bookmakers' 42% favourites and lost 1–2.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: St. Lucia were the bookmakers' 44% favourites and lost 0–2.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Honduras were the bookmakers' 56% favourites and lost 2–3.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Scores updated 5:33 AM EST
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Model + bookmakers blend (ours): its favourite won 60% of 328 matches. It gave its favourite 53% on average: too cautious.
Model (ours): too few to say (4).
Over 463 matches in the last 60 days, the bookmakers' closing prices were slightly more accurate than ours.
Published cards: 105 of 140 came in (cards share legs; small sample).
Our soccer numbers are not validated as better than the bookmakers' yet.