1 of 2 matches on Fri 25 Sep is priced by a blend of our model and the bookmakers; 1 is priced by the bookmakers. How each source has done
Every number says whose it is. No sport's numbers are validated as better than the bookmakers' yet. How we grade
Upset: Brazil were the bookmakers' 76% favourites and drew 1–1.
Upset: Panama were the bookmakers' 71% favourites and drew 1–1.
Scores updated 5:33 AM EST
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Model + bookmakers blend (ours): its favourite won 60% of 328 matches. It gave its favourite 53% on average: too cautious.
Model (ours): too few to say (4).
Over 463 matches in the last 60 days, the bookmakers' closing prices were slightly more accurate than ours.
Published cards: 105 of 140 came in (cards share legs; small sample).
Our soccer numbers are not validated as better than the bookmakers' yet.