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Game analysis · college football

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Syracuse Orange 30-27 SMU Mustangs: Game Analysis & Model Review

A 30-27 win for the Syracuse Orange over the SMU Mustangs in college football, Saturday, October 31: the box score, the top performers and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 31, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before the game →

Game report

The Syracuse Orange beat the SMU Mustangs 30-27 in college football on Saturday, October 31. The Syracuse Orange finished with 338 yards, and the SMU Mustangs finished with 421; the Syracuse Orange won by three points. The Syracuse Orange committed 0 turnovers, while the SMU Mustangs committed 2.

The numbers

The Syracuse Orange had 200 net passing yards and 138 rushing yards. The SMU Mustangs had 351 net passing yards and 70 rushing yards. The Syracuse Orange picked up 20 first downs; the SMU Mustangs picked up 25.

The Syracuse Orange possessed the ball for 29:34, and the SMU Mustangs possessed it for 30:26. The Syracuse Orange converted 25% of third downs, while the SMU Mustangs converted 46.2%.

Top performers

For the Syracuse Orange, Steve Angeli completed 21 of 34 passes for 200 yards, with a touchdown. Ahmad Miller ran for 56 yards on 18 carries, with a touchdown, and Umari Hatcher caught 6 passes for 65 yards. On defense, Keyshawn Johnson had 2 sacks; Tripp Woody made 3 of 3 field goals.

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For the SMU Mustangs, Kevin Jennings completed 29 of 36 passes for 351 yards, with 2 touchdowns. Kendrick Raphael ran for 51 yards on 14 carries, with a touchdown, and Yannick Smith caught 5 passes for 95 yards. Brendan Baird made 1 of 1 field goals.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pregame probabilities were estimates: the model gave the Syracuse Orange 45.7% and the SMU Mustangs 54.3%. Its favorite was the SMU Mustangs to win; it gave the actual winner 45.7%, so the result went against the model's favorite. The model had the SMU Mustangs by 1.5 points, but the Syracuse Orange won by three points.

See every number for this game in the Game Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and game records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

college football

Syracuse Orange vs SMU Mustangs

Sat, Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET

Final

30–27

The model before the game

Syracuse Orange
45.7%
SMU Mustangs
54.3%

The result went against the model's favourite.

The numbers

Syracuse OrangeStatisticSMU Mustangs
0turnovers2
20first downs25
338total yards421
138rushing yards70
200net passing yards351
29:34time of possession30:26
25%third-down conversion rate46.2%
Open the Game Center

Sat, Oct 31 · 10:00 PM ET

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