Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Real Madrid host Villarreal in La Liga on Saturday, October 10, with kick-off at 3:00 p.m. ET at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid. The model's likeliest result is a Real Madrid win; its expected-goals figures are 3 for Real Madrid and 1.4 for Villarreal. The forecast points to a game in which Real Madrid are expected to score, while the model also assigns Villarreal a scoring expectation.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model gives Real Madrid 72.1%, a draw 14.7% and Villarreal 13.2%. Its outcomes from likeliest down are a Real Madrid win (72.1%), then a draw (14.7%), then a Villarreal win (13.2%), and its stated lean is Real Madrid to win.
The model assigns over 2.5 goals at 78.8% to the over-goals outcome and under 2.5 goals at 21.2% to the under-goals outcome. It gives both teams scoring 69.3%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 30.7%. Its likeliest exact-score estimates are 2-1 at 7.8%, 3-1 at 7.4% and 2-0 at 6.1%. Those scorelines all have Real Madrid scoring more than Villarreal, while the wider goal and scoring estimates also leave room for Villarreal to find the net. The model's main call is clear: a Real Madrid win.
Form and standings
Real Madrid's last 5 results, listed most recent first, are LWWLW. That sequence amounts to 3 wins and 2 defeats, with 12 goals scored and 6 conceded; the latest was a 2-1 away defeat to Atletico Madrid on September 20. The result against Atletico Madrid is the most recent entry in that run, while the overall record includes wins as well as defeats.