Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Alaves host Atletico Madrid in La Liga on Saturday, October 10 at 10:15 a.m. ET. Atletico Madrid arrive after a run of wins, while Alaves are looking to end a spell without a victory; the sides are 6th in La Liga and 2nd in La Liga respectively, and Atletico Madrid sit above Alaves.
The model’s likeliest result is an Atletico Madrid win. The recent form and the model’s expectations make this a meeting between an Alaves side seeking a response and an Atletico Madrid side carrying momentum.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Alaves 26.7%, the draw 26.4% and Atletico Madrid 47%, with an Atletico Madrid win its likeliest result. It assigns 1.4 expected goals to Alaves and 1.5 to Atletico Madrid.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 53.8% and under 2.5 goals at 46.2%. It gives both teams to score 57%, and at least one side to fail to score 43%. Its likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 11.5%; the other leading scorelines are 0-1 at 8.7% and 1-2 at 8.4%.
On the comparison with bookmaker probabilities, the model gives an Atletico Madrid win 47%, below the bookmakers' 48%.
Form and standings
Alaves’ recent sequence is DLLWW, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats and 7 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their latest result was a 0-0 away draw with Athletic Club on September 19, and they are without a win in their last 3.