Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Real Madrid host Sevilla in La Liga on Sunday, October 18 at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model’s outcome order is a Real Madrid win (71%), then a draw (16.4%), then a Sevilla win (12.6%), and Real Madrid sit above Sevilla.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s likeliest result is a Real Madrid win, and its lean is Real Madrid to win. It projects expected goals of 2.3 for Real Madrid and 1.2 for Sevilla, pointing to scoring contributions from both sides in its forecast.
The goals outlook is over 2.5 goals at 65% and under 2.5 goals at 35.1%. The model gives both teams to score 60.5%, while the chance at least one side fails to score is 39.5%. Its listed score possibilities are 1-1 at 9.7%, 2-1 at 9.2% and 2-0 at 8.3%. Those projections offer more than one possible shape for the match, with a draw among the listed scores as well as home wins.
Form and standings
Real Madrid have WLWWL in their recent games, a record of 3 wins and 2 defeats and 9 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their latest result was a 1-0 home win against Villarreal on October 10. The sequence includes wins and defeats, with that latest victory the most recent reference point ahead of this fixture.
Sevilla have DLWWD, recording 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat and 7 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their latest outing was a 3-3 away draw with Levante on October 12, and they are without a win in their last 2. In the standings, Real Madrid have 18 points from 8 games, while Sevilla have 14 points from 8 games; Real Madrid sit above Sevilla. The recent records and the table provide context for a meeting between sides with wins and dropped points in their latest spells.