Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
PEC Zwolle host GO Ahead Eagles in Eredivisie on Sunday, October 18 at 6:15 a.m. ET, with the visitors arriving unbeaten in their last 4 and PEC Zwolle on 3 defeats in a row. The model’s likeliest result is a GO Ahead Eagles win, and its goal outlook points towards an open contest.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a GO Ahead Eagles win (49.7%), then a PEC Zwolle win (26.5%), then a draw (23.8%). Its expected-goals figures are PEC Zwolle 1.4 and GO Ahead Eagles 2.8, and its lean is over 2.5 goals. The expected-goals forecast points to more scoring threat from the visitors, alongside a clear preference for an away win.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 78.3% and under 2.5 goals at 21.7%. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 71.1%, while the probability that at least one side fails to score is 28.9%. Together, those figures frame a match in which scoring at both ends is a significant possibility, though a failure to score for at least one side remains part of the forecast.
The likeliest exact score is 1-2 at 7.9%, followed by 1-1 at 7.7% and 1-3 at 7.2%. The leading scorelines do not all point to the same outcome: the list includes an away win, a draw and another away win.
Form and standings
PEC Zwolle’s recent sequence is LLLDL. Across 5 games, they have 1 draw and 4 defeats, with 3 goals scored and 16 conceded. Their latest result was a 1-0 home defeat to Cambuur on October 11, and they are on 3 defeats in a row. That recent record sets a difficult backdrop for a fixture in which the model favours the visitors.