Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Paris FC host Rennes in Ligue 1 on Sunday, October 18, with the model making a Paris FC win its likeliest result although Rennes sit above Paris FC. The fixture is scheduled for 11:15 a.m. ET at Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino.
The model’s expected-goals figures project a stronger attacking return for Paris FC, while its leading scorelines all have Rennes failing to score. That forecast meets a recent head-to-head result in Rennes’ favour and contrasting latest results for the sides.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Paris FC a 40.3% chance of winning, a draw 26.1%, and Rennes a 33.6% chance; its likeliest result is a Paris FC win.
The expected-goals figures are Paris FC 2.1 and Rennes 0.7. The model puts the chance of over 2.5 goals at 50.8%, with under 2.5 goals at 49.2%. It gives both teams a chance to score of 41.4%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 58.6%.
The leading score projections are 2-0 at 13.7%, 1-0 at 13.6% and 3-0 at 9.3%. Each projected score has Rennes failing to score. The model’s ordering of outcomes is a Paris FC win (40.3%), then a Rennes win (33.6%), then a draw (26.1%). The bookmakers’ ordering is a Paris FC win (41.5%), then a draw (29.3%), then a Rennes win (29.1%); the model gives a Paris FC win 40.3%, below the bookmakers' 41.5%.
Form and standings
Paris FC’s recent sequence is LWDWW. Over that run, Paris FC recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat and scored 8 goals and 4 conceded. The latest match was a 1-0 away defeat to Lorient on October 10.